China Pesticide Export Quarterly Watch | 2026 Q2: Brazil's Buying Surge Lifts Exports to a Record High, as Volume and Price Rise Together

Opening: US$3.13 Billion, a New Quarterly Record

China's pesticide formulation exports reached US$3.133 billion in Q2 2026, on a volume of 1,054.6 thousand tonnes, at a blended unit price of US$2.97/kg. This is the highest quarterly figure in our tracking window — well above both Q2 2025 (US$2.568 billion) and the immediately preceding Q1 2026 (US$2.348 billion).

The comparisons are striking across the board. Year-on-year against Q2 2025, value rose 22.0%, volume rose 16.3%, and price rose 4.9% — a rare case where price gained ground rather than merely following volume. Quarter-on-quarter against Q1 2026, value jumped 33.4%, volume rose 23.3%, and price rose 8.2%, a sharper move than the "volume compensating for price" pattern described in our Q1 note. Against the 2024–2025 Q2 baseline average (US$2.345 billion), the quarter came in 33.6% higher.

The monthly cadence is worth recording in detail — this is the one stretch of genuinely consecutive data in this note, running January through June 2026. January brought US$829 million, February US$713 million, March US$807 million, April US$994 million, May US$1.031 billion, and June US$1.108 billion, with all three Q2 months climbing steadily and June alone exceeding every single month of Q1. More notably, price did not soften as volume expanded: the blended unit price rose from US$2.70/kg in April to US$2.99/kg in May and US$3.25/kg in June — breaking the more typical pattern of price eroding as volume scales up, across these six consecutive months.

This stands in sharp contrast to our Q1 assessment, which noted that price had held at US$2.75/kg for two consecutive years' Q1s and asked whether further volume expansion in Q2 would reignite downward price pressure. The answer, at least in this one genuinely sequential comparison, is no — scale expansion and price firming (even strengthening) occurred simultaneously. But as the category breakdown below shows, this is heavily concentrated in herbicides rather than a broad-based recovery.

Category Mix: Herbicides Accelerate, While Insecticides Remain Locked in a "Volume-for-Price" Pattern

The four major categories carried forward — and in some cases deepened — the divergence seen in Q1.

Herbicides generated US$1.962 billion this quarter, 62.6% of the total, up 26.9% year-on-year and 28.5% quarter-on-quarter, and 36.7% above baseline. Volume rose 11.7% while unit price jumped 13.7% year-on-year — a rare instance where price contributed more to growth than volume, unusual across the comparable Q2s in our data. By HS subheading, retail-packaged herbicides (38089311) contributed US$1.114 billion and non-retail (38089319) US$848 million, together accounting for most of this quarter's incremental growth. The sharp herbicide price recovery tracks closely with the cost-side rebound in glyphosate and other herbicide technicals since 2026, and confirms the Q1 note's assessment that "the sharpest phase of price clearing may be over."

Insecticides posted US$736 million, up 16.7% year-on-year, but volume surged 43.9% while unit price fell a further 18.9% — the "trading price for volume" dynamic did not ease; if anything, it widened. Quarter-on-quarter, volume rose 42.3% while price ticked up just 3.1%, suggesting near-term price pressure has eased somewhat, though the deeper year-on-year price decline has yet to reverse. This divergence suggests that the cost recovery lifting herbicide technicals has not passed through to insecticides — the pricing logic of the two categories is decoupling further.

Fungicides brought in US$392 million, up 11.8% year-on-year with volume up 8.4% and price up 3.1% — extending the "clearest price repair" pattern flagged in Q1 — though price actually slipped 6.8% quarter-on-quarter while volume rose a much sharper 51.0%, indicating this quarter's growth leaned more on a seasonal demand release than on sustained pricing power.

PGRs (plant growth regulators) totalled US$44 million, up 6.1% year-on-year with volume down 1.2% and price up 7.3% — the smallest and steadiest category, still running a mild "price-for-volume" pattern.

In mix terms, herbicides' share rose from 60.2% in Q2 2025 to 62.6%, insecticides held roughly flat (24.6% → 23.5%), and fungicides eased slightly (13.6% → 12.5%). Herbicides' contribution to this quarter's growth became even more concentrated, closely tied to seasonal restocking in core herbicide markets such as Latin America and North America.

Regional Divergence: Latin America's "Super Cycle" Reshapes the Map, West Africa Retreats

If Q1's storyline was "West Africa's rise, the Middle East's retreat," Q2's is "Latin America's surge, Southeast Asia's broadening, and West Africa's pullback."

Latin America: A Brazil-Driven Seasonal Surge

Latin America generated US$1.315 billion this quarter, up 19.9% year-on-year and a striking 122.9% quarter-on-quarter, 34.6% above baseline — 42% of total global exports, and unquestionably the quarter's central storyline.

Brazil alone accounted for US$815 million, up 14.5% year-on-year and up 198.5% quarter-on-quarter — a figure approaching a third of the entire global export total recorded in Q1 2026. Brazil's explosive quarter-on-quarter growth largely reflects the seasonal buying window for the South American soybean belt: Q2 is when Brazilian growers concentrate purchases of crop inputs ahead of the next planting cycle beginning in August–September, and this year's genuine demand growth compounded the seasonal effect. Herbicides continue to dominate the Brazilian mix.

Argentina was this quarter's biggest surprise: exports of US$110 million, up 129.0% year-on-year and 200.5% above baseline, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 185.9%. This pace far exceeds the "signs of recovery after years of economic turmoil" flagged in our Q1 note — Argentina's agricultural input recovery has moved from a signal to a trend, and its sustainability bears close watching. Paraguay (US$76 million, +26.0% YoY) and Mexico (US$57 million, +63.4% YoY) also performed strongly; Colombia (US$41 million, -9.4% YoY) was one of the few markets in the region to post a year-on-year decline.

Southeast Asia: Broad-Based Growth Without a Single Star Performer

Southeast Asia generated US$561 million, up 31.6% year-on-year and 53.1% quarter-on-quarter, 39.6% above baseline — the quarter's second-fastest-growing region. Unlike Latin America or West Africa's earlier country-concentrated surges, Southeast Asia's growth is broad-based: Thailand (US$157 million, +33.2%), Indonesia (US$111 million, +54.2%), Cambodia (US$88 million, +34.0%) and Vietnam (US$61 million, +21.0%) all posted double-digit-plus gains, with only Myanmar (US$48 million, -7.8%) pulling back modestly. Growth that doesn't hinge on a single large order typically signals a sturdier underlying demand base, making this the quarter's most notable structural shift.

West Africa: The Q1 "New Pillar" Narrative Cools

West Africa generated US$240 million, essentially flat year-on-year (-1.9%) but down sharply 41.6% quarter-on-quarter, with its lead over baseline narrowing from 30.2% in Q1 to just 6.4%. Ghana (US$72 million, +8.1% YoY, -34.2% QoQ), Nigeria (US$69 million, +1.2% YoY, -26.8% QoQ), Côte d'Ivoire (US$54 million, -5.5% YoY, -44.9% QoQ) and Senegal (US$4 million, -75.4% QoQ) all retreated without exception.

This directly answers the question raised in our Q1 note: was West Africa's leap built on genuine underlying demand, or on distributor stockpiling? The sharp sequential pullback this quarter suggests at least part of the earlier growth did carry channel-restocking characteristics; true end-market absorption will need further confirmation from next quarter's data.

North America: The Sequential Cooldown Confirms "Front-Loaded" Buying

North America generated US$187 million, up 68.7% year-on-year but down 13.6% quarter-on-quarter. The US pullback (US$129 million, +65.7% YoY, -21.4% QoQ) largely confirms the Q1 note's hypothesis that tariff-related uncertainty was pulling purchases forward — the year-on-year figure still looks strong against a low base a year ago, but the sequential decline suggests Q1's rush-buying effect is fading. Canada (US$59 million, +75.8% YoY, +10.6% QoQ) continued a steadier expansion with no similar signs of pulled-forward demand.

CIS/Central Asia: Structural Drivers Remain Intact

CIS/Central Asia generated US$193 million, up 14.2% year-on-year, 42.9% above baseline. Kazakhstan stood out (US$88 million, +22.0% YoY, +128.9% QoQ), while Russia (US$61 million, +8.9% YoY) held steady. Geopolitically-driven agricultural input dependence and food-security policy remain the region's primary growth logic, consistent with our Q1 assessment.

Oceania and South Asia: Steady Expansion

Oceania generated US$154 million, up a strong 50.1% year-on-year, driven mainly by Australia (US$134 million, +61.9% YoY), though it eased 25.9% quarter-on-quarter — suggesting this market, too, saw some seasonal buying pulled forward. South Asia generated US$109 million, up 32.0% year-on-year; Bangladesh, which pulled back sharply in Q1, rebounded strongly this quarter (US$63 million, +31.5% YoY, +67.6% QoQ), suggesting earlier destocking pressure has largely eased.

Europe and the Middle East: Continued Pressure

Europe generated US$62 million, down 4.5% year-on-year and still 1.6% below baseline, with Poland (US$25 million, -14.2% YoY) continuing to soften. The Middle East remains the only region in deep, ongoing contraction: US$24 million, down a sharp 47.3% year-on-year and 47.1% below baseline, with Iraq (-81.5% YoY) and Israel (-49.6% YoY) posting especially steep declines — sanctions and geopolitical conflict continue to weigh on the region with no signs yet of easing.

Industry Signal: A "Localized" Price Recovery and Structural Rebalancing

Viewed separately through the YoY and QoQ lenses, a new narrative thread emerges — one that departs subtly from our Q1 assessment.

On a year-on-year basis: this quarter's US$2.97/kg is the highest of the three comparable Q2s in our data, clearly above both Q2 2025 (US$2.83/kg) and Q2 2024 (US$2.88/kg). Our Q1 note observed that price had locked in at US$2.75/kg for two consecutive years' Q1s, and flagged early but inconclusive signs of a price bottom — worth noting, that observation was drawn from a year-over-year series of Q1s specifically, a different sample from this note's Q2 series, and the two should not be read as one continuous curve.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis — the one genuinely consecutive pair in this note — price rose from US$2.75/kg in Q1 2026 to US$2.97/kg in Q2 2026, up 8.2%; this is the only true sequential price comparison available here. At the category level, this sequential recovery is likewise far from universal: herbicide price rose 9.8% quarter-on-quarter (from US$2.40 to US$2.63/kg), doing most of the work, while insecticides and PGRs rose only modestly, and fungicide price actually fell 6.8% quarter-on-quarter (from US$5.02 to US$4.68/kg).

Whether viewed year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter, herbicide price strength is the dominant driver behind this quarter's price data, tied mainly to cost-side repair in glyphosate, glufosinate and other herbicide technicals since the second half of 2025, rather than broad-based pricing power across all categories. Insecticide price, still down 18.9% year-on-year — in the same range as the -19.8% year-on-year decline reported for Q1 2026 in our prior note — shows that the deep price weakness has not been reversed by the herbicide-side recovery, and is the clearest evidence against a category-wide recovery.

On the volume side, this quarter's 1,054.6 thousand tonnes is likewise the highest across our comparable periods: up 16.3% year-on-year against Q2 2025, and up 23.3% quarter-on-quarter against Q1 2026. This is the first period in our tracking window where volume and price rose sharply together on both the YoY and QoQ measures, rather than volume merely compensating for falling price. Part of this reflects genuine seasonal expansion in Latin America, led by Brazil; a degree of short-term channel restocking cannot be ruled out either.

The regional divergence reinforces that this quarter's growth is structural rather than universal: Latin America and Southeast Asia's strong expansion coincided with simultaneous retreats in West Africa and the Middle East. Global pesticide demand is not recovering in unison — it is rotating unevenly across regions.

Closing: Three New Watch Points

At US$3.133 billion, Q2 2026 is on its face an impressive scorecard, and it largely validates the three open questions raised in our Q1 note: North American demand did carry a front-loaded component (confirmed by the sequential cooldown); West Africa's growth sustainability was indeed questionable (confirmed by the sharp sequential pullback); and price direction did see a "localized breakout" — herbicide-driven, not category-wide.

Looking ahead to Q3, three new questions are worth tracking.

Watch point one: Can Latin America's seasonal surge carry into Q3, or was this purely a compression of the buying window? Brazil's explosive quarter-on-quarter growth largely reflects the regular seasonality of input purchases. If Brazil and neighbouring markets cool noticeably in Q3, this quarter's strength was mostly timing; if levels hold relatively high, it would suggest South America's underlying demand base has genuinely shifted upward.

Watch point two: Will West Africa keep declining, or has this quarter largely completed the inventory digestion? A 41.6% sequential contraction is substantial. Q3 data will show whether West African markets stabilize, confirming whether earlier channel stockpiling has now largely cleared.

Watch point three: Can the herbicide-driven price recovery spread to other categories? If glyphosate and other technical prices keep rising, herbicide price strength should continue; but the persistent softness in insecticide prices suggests it is still too early to call a category-wide price bottom, and the pass-through from upstream technical pricing to other categories bears close watching.

For observers of the agrochemical trade, the mid-year chapter of 2026 is proving more layered — and more worth a close read — than the opening one.